More or less correct that in raising seed, that most companies that successfully raise, fall into two camps: either a conceptual raise (with little to no evidence) or a traction-raise. The conceptual raise is almost always easier but puts most emphasis on the founder(s) which means that without a lot of prior success or good predictors for future success, a conceptual raise is simply not possible for many founders.

A traction raise can be really tough because the "metrics that matter" are so subjective to each investor and what's already been achieved gets discounted almost to zero and the analysis is on the question of "how much bigger can this be?" which leaves most inexperienced founders unable to articulate a credible vision of how it can become a billion-dollar business (at the very least in enterprise value)

What to raise, when to raise, and how to raise are all questions I have helped a lot of Clarity members answer. I encourage you to take a look at the reviews other Clarity members have left about their interactions with me on this subject. If you're serious about understanding your options, I'd be happy to help you in a call.

In my experience, the first strategy is successful when you already have street cred. Have built a couple of start-ups before and have a very strong network and relationships or you have been working for a tech company for many years in a group that made it very successful decides to leave and start something that solves a problem that your employer wasn;t willing to solve.

The second strategy is better for people with no street cred and limited networks. As you need some proof of traction before anybody will look at you. Even then, financiers may or may not come find you, you may still have to go look for them.

You are right in your stating of the process, but I will give stress on idea and MVP process.
Your spreadsheet is now a grid with customer/audience types down the side and business/pricing models across the top. Each box where the two lists overlap is a place to brainstorm ideas. Go through each square in this grid. You can dismiss many of the boxes in a few seconds, but it is worth giving each consideration as you will inevitably come up with ideas you did not expect. The easiest way to do this is go column by column. Pick a business or pricing model, think of a few existing businesses that use it, and spend 5 minutes reading about them to get your head into that space. Then, apply it to each potential customer or audience group: how could it fit? What are their priorities, what gets in their way, where are they wasting time or money, what do they depend upon? Browse discussion forums where they participate or are discussed. See what they care about, what people complain about. Search online for other companies that already compete to offer them products and services.
You can read more here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2013/05/08/what-are-the-best-ways-to-think-of-ideas-for-a-startup/?sh=61d837c07b82
Besides if you do have any questions give me a call: https://clarity.fm/joy-brotonath